A new post-primary poll, commissioned by ProgressNow Arizona paints the picture of an incredibly competitive state and highlights clear opportunities for multiple statewide Democratic victories. Most compelling is the governor’s race, which has Governor Doug Ducey and Democrat David Garcia neck and neck, with Garcia capturing 48 percent of the vote to Ducey’s 49 percent.
“Despite his millions of outside dark money and slew of attack ads, Doug Ducey is essentially tied with his Democratic opponent. Clearly Arizona voters are not being swayed by the Ducey campaign’s fear-mongering tactics, or his lack of focus on the real issues that matter to voters-Education, healthcare, and fighting corruption,” said Josselyn Berry, Co-director of ProgressNow Arizona.
“The demographics in this survey were weighted to be relatively conservative and in line with the last midterm election – that’s to say pretty old, pretty white, and plurality registered Republican,” said Progress Now’s pollster Ben Lazarus of TargetSmart. “Given the enthusiasm we just saw expressed on the Democratic side in the primary, there’s evidence the blue wave could land in a big way in Arizona this year. But even if it doesn’t, this poll underscores that Ducey is vulnerable and the race for governor is likely to be competitive whether the 2018 electorate swells with lots of new Democratic votes or not.”
This poll comes on the heels of a historic August 28th primary election, where a record 526,574 voters came out and voted in the state Democratic primary. Further, while just 30% of Independent voters chose a Democratic ballot in 2014, 45% chose one in 2018, indicating a significantly different shape to the electorate in 2018.